Kerala may very well be bracing for yet one more main dengue epidemic in 2020 going by the present and early illness surveillance traits.
With serological evaluations displaying that there is likely to be a shift in the kind of dengue virus hitherto circulating locally, the opportunity of the subsequent outbreak being extra virulent, with vital mortality, can’t be discounted, public well being consultants have warned.
Not simply dengue, Chikungunya (CHK) additionally appears to be rearing its head once more, with a big spike within the variety of instances being reported from Thiruvananthapuram.
After 2007-09, Chikungunya has not been a serious situation within the State as a big part of the group had been rendered immune because of pure an infection.
Nonetheless, CHK instances may very well be spiking now as a result of the brink of herd immunity rendered by the pure CHK an infection is starting to wane.
Dengue epidemics happen in a cyclical sample and the final main epidemic in 2017 resulted in 21,993 instances (lab confirmed alone) and 165 deaths.
“Dengue pattern in the State over the years shows that cases usually spike in July-August. But whenever cases have spiked in November-December, it has been followed by major outbreaks in the subsequent year, as was true in 2013 and 2017 when the State had major epidemics. In December 2013, 90 cases and in 2017 same month, 86 cases were reported. This year, in the first one week of December itself, 147 confirmed and some 210 suspected dengue cases have been reported, especially from Thiruvananthapuram and Ernakulam,” a senior public well being skilled mentioned.
What’s extra worrying is that there appears to be a virological swap or a change within the predominant kind of dengue virus circulating locally this time.
Dengue virus kind 2 (DENV 2) is the most typical circulating dengue virus within the State, accounting for almost 50% of the infections in all outbreaks. The 2017 outbreak was extreme as a result of there was a big share of kind 1 (DENV1) instances.
“We had sent 40 blood samples of dengue positive cases last month for serological analysis at the ICMR’s Virus Control and Research Centre at Kottayam. To our surprise, 35% of the cases were of type 4 (DENV4), which has been the hardest to find in the State so far. Type 4 has probably come across Tamil Nadu border. Going by the epidemiological and virological patterns, we fear that the State is in for a major outbreak, next year, unless serious and sustained control measures are launched immediately,” a senior public well being skilled advised Bharat.One.